Hi Nietopetz
You describe yourself as bullish but you say sales are likely to be 2mt . . . and then you take off 40% !
Typical sales are 2.5mt. The last 4 quarters add up to 2.51mt.
Grange has always sold 100% of its production.
Also current C1 costs are not $120 but $113.
And then you propose 3 negative scenarios . . . how about throwing in just one positive scenario such as UG will increase production to 3mt and reduce costs and that maybe their is a possibilty that in AUD terms we start receiving even more for our low emmission pellets.
Its OK to be cautious but I think your calculations are overly pessimistic.
GRR Valuation, page-92
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