GRR Valuation, page-5

While it is exceptional value in my opinion (I've been gradually increasing my stake and now have a reasonable holding by my standards, would still like to increase a little more but getting close to a holding that I'm happy with), a couple of small changes I'd suggest to your numbers.

For example we know that cash on hand at 31 March 2021 was around $253m from their quarterly (keep in mind that they paid a dividend that quarter). I would estimate their 30 June 21 cash position at around $400m, this might be a little conservative it could be a bit higher but it won't be as high as $600m.

When calculating enterprise value it is normally done as market cap +/- net debt/(net cash), i.e. you wouldn't normally factor in receivables/inventory, otherwise you would also need to consider creditors and other liabilities. So an approximate EV at 30 June of ($610m market cap less net cash of say $400m), would be around $210m, depending on the cash position. Still incredible value, when they would conservatively be bringing in net cash of around $150m per quarter before tax at current pricing. Another way of putting it is that if iron ore prices hold up until the end of the year Dec 21, we would have received say a 4c dividend and be fully cash backed at the current market cap, however I would imagine in that scenario the market cap will be significantly higher. I put it at a high probability, 70-80% that we achieve a 100% return from this share price, including dividends, at some point over the next 2 years.