G'day Ushiva. I also don't think that "credibility" has anything...

G'day Ushiva. I also don't think that "credibility" has anything to do with the current SP for ICN. After all, it is Beach that is doing all the work in Halifax-1 and ICN is just sitting (probably on the rig 24/7) watching it all unfold.
ICN's SP and lack of the usual "anticipation" money, goes much deeper than that and I think that that will also play out when Halifax-1 results are known (either from inside, or ann'd to the ASX, if you know what I mean).
I have never supported the idea of an ADE type T/O by BPT, but, one must never ignore the possibility of a "fair and reasonable" takeover.
IF BPT has those intentions, they certainly could have done so long before now, BUT, what is happening to the respective SPs of both ICN and BPT is making a full paper T/O MUCH more feasible.
The SP ratios have now blown out from around 5:1 ($1.00 to .20) to over 6.5:1 as BPT has increased to nearer $1.30 and ICN has actually fallen to .195.
IMO this has been done by placing deterring blocks on the Sell side and has very successfully kept a very tight lid on ICN's SP. Whereby, even so close to TD and already with "bonus" results, ICN's SP has hit a brick wall.
Now I am not saying that BPT is necessarily behind this, but, "someone" certainly is.
What that has done is that BPT "could" now make a very attractive all paper offer of as much as 1:2, "valuing" ICN at near .65.
Compared to .195, IMO, it will take only the VERY loyal and knowledgeable ICN SHs to refuse it.
It would "cost" BPT 240 million shares at today's SP, "nominally" $312 million, and a relatively minor dilution of its capital.
For that they get ICN's 40% of 855 and its 33.33% of the post permian section of 218 and their other leases. Whether or not they get the Shantou GSA would just be a bonus, the leases alone would be enough of a prize.
There are a huge number of disgruntled ICN SH's who chased the money and have been locked in between .30 and .63 for months and IMO they would jump ship immediately.
BUT, that may not even get BPT to 51%, but, depending on how ICN defends itself and surely 40% of 855 with the GSA is their crowning glory, BPT could just give a full T/O a shake, probably with further sweetners. They might even be satisfied with 51% on an interim basis, so they can at least take control of the Board.
IF that is on BPT's mind, the results from Halifax-1 are the only "threat" and the next 2 weeks would seem to me the best opportunity IF such a T/O is even on BPT's agenda.
But, it certainly creates a not too unrealistic situation which we should all be watching closely.
If, the "infamous" ICN "leaks" are to happen again, they had better start pretty soon to change that SP ratio back into its favour. Interesting times ahead. I, for one, will be watching this space.