Good confirmation Dank that the GSK monolith is really stirring....

Good confirmation Dank that the GSK monolith is really stirring. The French plant has 20 million courses underway. The GSK comment that Ulverston is one of many plants in the UK producing Relenza is disingenuous in that none have been producing it for several years (if ever) although of course they are all capable of it.

There appears to be a concerted effort to massively increase production at as many as ten GSK plants and associated facilities. Production assuming they start with approved sialic acid precursor stock (as happened in the French production underway) was taking them 6 months to distribution so even the single plant can now make 40 million courses in a 12 month period. Montrose in Scotland, Boronia in Melbourne and now several other facilities can utilise spare production lines (GSK has numerous sites with spare capacity) that could result in perhaps a production level of 200 million courses or more by the end of 2006 - very much more than we were talking about even a month ago.

As you point out, our discussions of better value due to lower dosage is now becoming well known. Tamiflu will soon price itself out of the market due to lack of efficacy in a sizeable patient subclass as well as unit cost/new recommended dose. Leave aside questions of induced resistance for the moment and you still get a favourable swing to Relenza.

Side effects are negligible - even in asthmatics as you rightly point out. Only supply has been a stumbling block. Within 12 months the Relenza effective supply will probably outstrip the effective Tamiflu supply (at the new doses needed) - roughly 200 million effective courses each. Countries will buy Relenza. BTA directors must know what the wind strength and direction is and are quite rightly positioning themselves. Orders must be shortly leaked or else GSK is starting to talk turkey. I still say dump their exclusive license (let them add by all means but not exclusively) and keep them out of LANI.

This is fantastic news for BTA shareholders and bird flu preparedness generally. Assuming BTA survives on projected royalties that remain a measly 6% net (I don't believe they will or should be less than 12-15%) the income will be streaming in due to accelerated production this FY of >$50 M and next year will >$200 M even at 6%. The number of BTA doubters at that stage will be few I can assure you. And equally the few BTA tragics will be joined by a legion of others who assure us that they never doubted for a moment!

Merry Christmas