GT1 - Megathread, page-1175

Welcome. With the last few scoping studies in Australia being combined DMS plus Flotation, the expectation of what a conversion plant can cost may have been reset above what GT1 will actually come out with in the PEA so there could be a favourable surprise.

A few resource estimate changes &/or scoping studies have used long-term pricing estimates around US$1,500/t. The current falls in spod prices haven't made that sort of pricing estimate unreasonable. GS was estimating that Chinese lepidolite had grown from 13kt in 2020 to 140kt in 2023. If Chinese lepidolite is now generally unprofitable, that 140kt will decrease over 2024 and take supply back out of the market. It will turn back on if (when) prices increase again because realistically it is needed to keep supply and demand balanced. This means the dynamic that should exist at least some of the time is prices being set at the level where the less efficient lepidolite operations are loss making, but efficient lepidolite (if that isn't an oxymoron term) is what sets the price of Carbonate. Everything else then adjusts from that pricing point.

GT1's DMS only flow chart without needing to do things like Flotation or moving grid powerlines is as simple as it gets so costs shouldn't be particularly high.

At least for the first few years, the ore being mined is close to the surface so strip ratio's will be exceptionally good.

There's at least a chance that the PEA has modelled a Canadian government grant. That grant hasn't been announced so the PEA can't without rewriting be released (as a backstop 2 versions may exist). If this is the case, a Canadian government grant for Hydroxide and the PEA could potentially drop on the same day. How good would that be to have a loan/grant into the hundreds of millions (because it would need to be that large to meaningfully contribute to hydroxide) drop on the same day as the PEA. I would not be at all surprised if the Hydroxide margin was over US$10k/t so at 20-25kt you are looking at a case proposing EBITDA's in the US$200-$250k+ per year range. The PEA won't assume this, but if you get another US$50k/t year, those margins could expand to $1b EBITDA in a year.