Short Version, the GTN is higher than reported, so calm down...

Short Version, the GTN is higher than reported, so calm down they won't need a raise if they can make a net addition of 700 - 1000 patients per month (they have averaged 1150 p/m since launch) The GTN is fine, it is being diluted by the free units being shipped to give easy access to the Dermatologies and the reporting of the PA units.

Long Version:
Here is something everyone is missing with the GTN, In the July webinar there is a note here about the reimbursement status of the PA units, 70% of these go on to receive full reimbursement, however these are a separate claim through insurance that take longer so they can't be reported as net revenue for the month and aren't shown in the webinar slides, only in the 4c.
PA units from March for example may not be approved for reimbursement until sometime in April so they are reported as a PA script and don't contribute any net revenue, hurting the GTN in that month but also not being reported anywhere when they are reimbursed but showing as revenue in the 4C.

*All the data is taken from the 4C and the corrected Webinar slides.



This can be seen in the latest quarterly 4C, $3.8m of revenue was reported,as noted in the webinar, Botanix are paid on 30-day EOM terms from SendRX who are paid by the insurers, so Revenue reported for the June quarter will be for months March, April and May.
From the table below if you use the webinar GTN this should only be $2.89M using March / April / May.



If you expand this table out and look at the PA scripts, of which 70% go on to receive full reimbursement you have additional net revenue, combining these 2 total for Mar / Apr / May gives, $4.148m revenue, some of these units possibly take a little longer for approval but this is close to what was actually reported in the 4c, Most likely some of the PA units end up being recorded in the month following or some of these PA units fall into the high deductible category, or the PA approved percentage varies by month for a 70% average.



This gives a lot better GTN than the figures in the webinar slide, June GTN was around 33% not 23%.



Monthly cash flow and time to break even,
Assuming
- Annual opex of 85m AUD excluding COGS and Bodor royalty (5%) which are accounted for separately below.
- no COGS for the next 7 months, we have approx 28m of inventory on hand
- cost per unit is $50USD - approx 90 AUD.
- net increase in users of 1000 p/m (we have done an average of 1150 since launch, and this is before the sales force increase)

- Cash on hand bottoms out at around 50m in June 2026.



This gives cashflow of approx 40m in 26/27 FY and 115m in 27/28FY.

If we can only add net 700 patients per month, COH bottoms out at 36m in October next year.



Bull case:

Add 1450 patients per month,
PBT in 26/27 FY of 84.5m and 175m in 27/28FY.