Just thought I'd have a crack , don't shoot me if I've made some...

Just thought I'd have a crack , don't shoot me if I've made some glaring errors or wrong assumptions (please correct me where i'm wrong or off the mark and I'll take another look) Perhaps others can fine tune and we'll see how close we get to the actuall PFS figures.

This is for entertainment purposes only !!! DYOR !!

Based mainly on looking at other recent builds/PFS/mining costs in the country and coupled with co's using simular milling techniques as proposed by AMX, as we've already discussed on the threads here.....

Assumptions (absolute worst case imo) :

-Mine build ~$350million for 3mtpa plant (upgradable to 5mtpa) $300million build with $50million operational buffer

- Another $40mill cappex spend to expand plant after 3 years, to add float regrind curcuit and expand to 5mtpa

-Lom average annaul production ~150000/oz per year (note - I think there is a very good chance that if they mine the higher grade shallow stuff (oxide) first at 2g/t+ in the first couple of years of production we will see 180k+/oz per year, maybe even over 200k/yr. This is critical for fast payback of debt facilities)

-Total cash cost per ounce including tax+royalties+opex - $1050/oz (this is an all-in cash cost , not a mock-one like most co's report) but this is a worse case scenario remember and early years could see sub $800/oz cash costs.

With a POG of $1500/oz we get:

- Free cash flow per year of ~$65-70million (will be much higher if production is 200k/oz++ in first few years , more like $90milllion per year)

- Mine payback in ~less than 3 years (assuming they borrow 50% of cost and keep some $$ aside for further exploration +expansion)

- With dilution of 450million shares - EPS of ~16c (full dilution depends of what price they raise capital at in the future vs hedge book ? vs size of debt facility ) note: The fact that Taurus our cornerstone investor, directors and notable geologists , are buying here and at this price ,we can infer two things; 1. They expect that next cap raise will be at a higher price (otherwise they'd just wait for next cap raise to buy) 2.They are not waiting for next cap raise to buy large amounts , but are buying on market, so they must not think dilution into production will be excessive(again, otherwise they would just wait till next cap raises to buy)

- With an industry average PE ratio of x8-x12 - share
price of between $1.30-$1.90 (ish) Note - PE ratio's are not reliably similar across the sector , so may be higher or lower than this, but most are x8 –x12

- Add in an exploration premium for the extensive land package of a further 40c per share(see RBC's latest valuation)We get a full valuation around $2 - $2.3 per share once into full production. This is discounting any major new discoveries (million ounce +) that may be found to increase the exploration/ground bank/production profile. A second mine in the north of Batie in the future if they find something up there ??

This is all very amature stuff from me, and I may be way off , but I think I've been conservative enough that I won't be overshooting the "expectations vs reality" of the project. But time will tell. I may be underestimatings things if anything.....

Main things to watch for in the PFS are Mine build cost, free cash flow forecasts in early years and expansion plans into the future once free cash flow is established. Keep an eye on the mine payback forecasts. These will be key points that could get a large rerating underway. Brokers will pounce on a favourable PFS imo.

Needless to say , gold price will be a sensitive factor in all this , but AMX will be profitable with gold prices $1200+ imo, even lower in the early years with cashcosts well under $1000/oz imo. Plenty of margin there.

I wouldn't let short term gold sentiment cloud your vision either . This equities rally will not last as new highs approach. USD will continue to weaken. Debt issues will return . Europe is a basket case and so is USA fiscal house. The can is getting too heavy to kick much further and soon will be kicked off the cliff. Remember that this equities rally is QE fueled and when QE finishes.... more QE will take its place.... remember when the fed said no QE3 coming ? Now we have QEx?