10cps would be a paltry NZ$17.5M.
Their guidance is 50% - 80% of adjusted FCF (That is, FCF that does not include cash from any asset sales).
Owner Earnings will be a good proxy for FCF.
EBITDA guidance = $150M - $160M. Let's take the lower end to start with...
- Subtract $35M lease costs = $115M
- Subtract $50M CAPEX = 65M
- Subtract $25M tax = $40M
Add $10M to those figures for top end guidance, and you get $50M.
So we should expect FCF somewhere between $40M - $50M (a very similar range of Earnings Guidance, as it transpires).
So low end divvy should be somewhere between $20M - $32M (50% to 80% of $40M)
High end divvy range should be somewhere between $25M - $40M (50% to 80% of $50M).
I would be shocked if they paid any less than $30M for the dividend (an amount that can be sustained in future years).
Then there is the question about what they do with the remaining ~$120M cash in the bank. They will want to keep a chunk, but how much do they return to shareholders? And in what form?
Let's say they keep $70M and return $50M (ideally it would be the other way around, but this is Sky TV we are talking about...)
$30M buyback programme and a $20M special divvy perhaps?
@MarsC
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