Oh yes, definitely good to be anchored to FCF.
In future years our CAPEX spend should go down somewhat. So even if GAAP Earnings remain stable, FCF has the potential to still increase in future years (and Sky will be able to pay even larger dividends).
The 'stay in business' CAPEX is $20M maximum. Probably a touch less.
ALL CAPEX (maintenance + growth) = $50M. Because they have been transitioning over the last few years I have treated the entire amount as "stay in business" as the company has been in the fight of its life.
The streaming platforms are really good now, setting up broadband is done...and once the STB has been launched and rolled out they should be able to cruise along with a range of smaller enhancement and optimisation projects but nothing that requires huge spend.
Unless they enter Mobile, in which case they will still spend around $50M total CAPEX for a while longer. That could be a worthwhile investment though, and shareholders would accept lower dividends than they would get if they didn't enter Mobile, if it leads to longer term gains.
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