guess the dividend, page-9

A poster on the new site Stocktrader posted this today from Craigs:

"Overweight rating remains. Price Target $3.32 (prev. $3.20).We retain our Overweight rating.

Our 12-month target price has increased 4% and remains based on a one-year forward PE of 10x. We assume a FY22 35cps special dividend, along with a 15cps final dividend which provides a potential 50cps/20% return to shareholders within the next few months, and a hypothetical ex-dividend forward PE of 6.0x.

We think FCF can support 22.5cps in ongoing dividends from FY23-FY26 at a 9.1% gross yield. This equates to 70% of our FCF forecast for the period vs. 50-80% payout policy. Key downside risks include: satellite churn, ARPU decline, cost of operational change & execution of technology path."

A 50cps total dividend expected (scrap any buyback, which would just take too damn long) would be very welcome!

@MarsC