I don't have my laptop on me but as VMK just said, reported revenue actually lags the ARR that management announce. Eg any revenue being collected right now will be included in their ARR figure but won't be reported as revenue in the accounting statements until about 3-6 months later if I understand correctly. As a result, ARR is a more instantaneous measure of the companies sales? If it is, you can state with certain assumptions that in the current quarter, the company will get ARR/4 in revenue. My data (maybe slightly off and we know ARR isn't evenly distributed) shows quite a difference in plotting revenue Vs arr/4 after it has been updated over time. I don't have my laptop with me at the moment but from memory it showed OCF as like $3m better. I will also try just the change in ARR from previous qtr then divided by 4 (as ARR accounts for the whole years value) Vs opex (actually that's a better idea, as that should more directly show the increase in sales from that qtr). I'll compare past data like this to vmks hypothesis that this should be equal to the revenues reported in the next few qtrs. I just don't like that reported revenues are lagged and wanted a more instantaneous measurement stat. Please reply if there are any obvious flaws with this logic, I'm trying to learn.
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I don't have my laptop on me but as VMK just said, reported...
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