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Guess this upcoming quarterly profit, page-33

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ducky1982

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10/07/24

14:49

Post #: 74691756
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Originally posted by curiouswon: ↑

I know that this new thread is for fun (and for the impatient) so let me try to add "some science" to the forward estimate of cash flow and profit.
Basis:
1.We know that May was cash flow positive from HGO announcement but don't know the quantum.
2. I assume that HGO gets paid when the concentrate gets to Port Adelaide (and I will use the approximation that this happens with zero delay from reported Cu production number - a slight overestimate).
3. I will assume that HGO gets paid AUD$12500 per tonne of included Cu (HGO may be getting a bit better, but it needs to deduct smelter costs (5%?), but it will get some extra Gold credits (5-8%).
4. I will assume that operating costs in April, and in June, were same as May (only minus and plus ~5% either way in ore tonnage, so this assumption seems reasonable)
5. Let's say that the positive cash flow for May was$May.
6. April produced 719t Cu which is 121t Cu less than May; so as I am assuming same Costs each month, net cash flow for April was$May minus $1.5M(as 121t by $12500/t produces $1.5M)

7. June produced 1025 t Cu which is 185t more than May; so as I am assuming same Costs each month, net cash flow for June was$May plus $2.3M(as 185t by $12500/t produces $2.3M)

8. Adding this together means Quarterly cash flow = 3x$May +$2.3M - $1.8M =>3x$May + $0.8M

9. Now I expect that the BOD would not have said that May was cash flow positive unless they were confident it was (with due recognition of varying payment dates, etc etc), so I amguessingthat$Maywas in the vicinity of $1M.

10. So quarterly cash flow would then be about $3.8M.

How’s that for an assessment?!? Is impatience quelled?

As for profit, well you would then need to add a bit for this and subtract a bit for that (for newcomers, these are technical accounting terms).

Expand

Cash flow positive from operations however I don’t think that includes other costs such as drilling etc to upgrade the MRE.

I’m guessing cash will be tight this quarter. Would have liked to see some of those options being exercised to send a positive message to the market and to see some extra cash in the kitty to expedite drilling etc to prove up the MRE.

Happy new year to all HGO punters.

HGO Price at posting: 7.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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