Guessing 26/8 A2M movement, page-24

Other than the buyback, there is not necessarily much difference between the two scenarios you gave. USA figures could be strong, early signs of FY22 improvement could be there, and the FY21 figures could simply meet guidance.

I am not sure that plans for a buyback alone would move the SP that much either way. It does indicate management confidence in a turnaround but any likely buyback ($200M or less) would not have a massive effect on the actual EPS.

I am more of the view that the FY21 result will be more or less irrelevant to the SP and that it will be all about the outlook. I also think they won't bother with a share buyback, and longer term the market won't give a s**t so long as they do articulate a sensible capital allocation strategy.