guesstimate for reu

Here’s my guesstimate for REU

Net Asset at June 08 is 296 million AUD

Assuming complete write off for NPC loan, 52.9 mil Pound convert to aussie dollar is 119 mil AUD

The German properties market has been in decline already and should not fall further, however assuming worst off there is a 10% decrease.
Total properties as at june 2008 is 554.7 Mil AUD, 554.7 X 0.9 = 499 Mil which equate to loss of around 55 mil AUD

296 – 119 – 55 = 122 Million AUD

Therefore total net equity should be around 122 Mil which equate share price to be around 24 cents

NPC loan, 52.9 mil Pound have not yet been written off as at today. Possibility that evaluation is better than expected and write off minimise.

Can anyone think of any other figures for this calculation? Or am I way off track here?