Guesstimates for AMP 2020-21, page-2

First 2 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
rvajna

10,258 Posts.

746

21/03/20

06:12

Post #: 43617118
Share

Originally posted by Helmich: ↑

Based on what we know here are some guesstimates and commentary for the next year.

The following is based on my own guesstimates and should not be treated as advice or a recommendation.

These are the estimated net figures:
AMP Wealth Management a loss of $37m
AMP Bank a profit of $59.4 m
AMP Capital a profit of $86.8m
AMP Life probably a loss but lets say break-even
AMP NZ a profit of $35m
So a net underlying profit of around $144.2m

Depending on how management reacts we could see share price to $0.50

AMP LIfe could take a massive hit from Covid 19 however this is unlikely. It only seems to kill older people and unlikely to see claims for IP or TPD as recovery for working-aged people seems to be good. There are always increased claims in a recession however and this effect remains to be seen. Loss for AMP life could increase but I haven't been able to work out the likely figure yet. The AMP life sale could be in jeopardy for a number of reasons now.

Net group loss of AUM may remain steady at around $5b-$7b per year further eroding fee income.

Covid 19 presents a great opportunity to clear the decks of unwanted staff. Basically, management can get rid of whomever they like and simply blame the virus (instead of years of bad management). Cost savings as estimated by AMP could be as high as $300m however redundancies are expensive so this may result in $600m-$900m gong onto the balance sheet and wiping out any capital raised from the AMP Life sale.

Long term under-investment in tech and product development may cause problems moving forward. Outsourcing will offset this but with that comes a raft of other problems. Declining customer service levels could accelerate AUM losses. Instead of paying bonuses to managers AMP should have been developing market-leading products and tech. Now they will need capital to do this in an environment where capital is hard to get and the share price is being hammered.

I have guesstimated that we should hit peak Covid 19 in or around June however the hangover and recovery won't be on track until around early 2022 and earnings may only recover incrementally (if at all) over this time). There are many reasons why earnings for AMP may not fully recover meaning we won't really know what AMP is worth but outlook could be negative.

There is the possibility that there will be no dividend until 2022.

The exodus of advisers from AMP has created another problem, there is no one at AMP to advise the clients. This may contribute to further loss of clients, AUM and product sales. As part of the exit of AMP advisers there looks to to be an allowance of $100m debt write off. This means that many AMP businesses may be over-leveraged resulting in the potential for further problems for the AMP advice network. I haven't run the numbers on this yet but it is hard to see how the AMP advice network will operate in the future.

AMP has a raft of legal actions pending. These are creating uncertainty for the group and mean that there can be no decent PE applied to this company until we can see what the "cleaned up" business looks like.

I personally cannot see AMP going for much longer in their current iteration. The Covid 19 epidemic could be just what the doctor ordered in providing the board with an excuse to break up the business. Based on the above it is hard to see the shareholders getting out of this in any reasonable shape.

Expand

What about the part where this is continuously being milked?

AMP Price at posting: $1.31 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

AII

Inside the depths of Panasqueira: A legacy carved in rock

WIN

'Incorrect datasets': Old irony sets WIN Metals up for golden opportunity at Emjay

Tuesday's HotCopper trends: Sayona intercepts, Bowen Coking crisis | July 15

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 017 – RBA holds the toppings

LKY

Locksley Resources the latest speccy to surge on US critical minerals hype

There are more pages in this discussion • 371 more messages in this thread...

First 2 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

(20min delay)
Last $1.54		Change 0.055(3.72%)		Mkt cap ! $3.873B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.49	$1.54	$1.47	$11.81M	7.755M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
66	293024	$1.53

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$1.54	152812	23

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
66	293024	1.530
35	147784	1.525
21	154144	1.520
15	305825	1.515
14	146860	1.510

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.535	152819	23
1.540	228126	30
1.545	353343	21
1.550	582156	35
1.555	427446	8

Last trade - 15.20pm 15/07/2025 (20 minute delay)

AMP (ASX) Chart

Guesstimates for AMP 2020-21, page-2

Inside the depths of Panasqueira: A legacy carved in rock

'Incorrect datasets': Old irony sets WIN Metals up for golden opportunity at Emjay

Tuesday's HotCopper trends: Sayona intercepts, Bowen Coking crisis | July 15

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 017 – RBA holds the toppings

Locksley Resources the latest speccy to surge on US critical minerals hype

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Guesstimates for AMP 2020-21, page-2

Top Stories

Inside the depths of Panasqueira: A legacy carved in rock

'Incorrect datasets': Old irony sets WIN Metals up for golden opportunity at Emjay

Tuesday's HotCopper trends: Sayona intercepts, Bowen Coking crisis | July 15

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 017 – RBA holds the toppings

Locksley Resources the latest speccy to surge on US critical minerals hype

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News