guesstimating reserve figures, page-2

With an independent reserve report at Rayburn supposedly due sometime this quarter, just interested if anyone has calculated/ made their own guesstimate? (I think I've seen 250-300 bcf thrown out there by a couple of people previously) Interested in peoples thoughts here...

I'm using 250BCF in my valuation models, simply based on a mixture of gut feel as well as the production and drill data to date. It is near impossible at this stage to ascertain an accurate estimate given that we have no net gas column thickness, no porosity or permeability data, no long term decline since we haven't hit it yet (so using equivalent decline from adjacent Wilcox producers), etc etc etc.

Distance between wells isn't a good data to use because it assumes a consistent, homogenous reservoir in between the drilled wells - which isn't always the case as they will always be variations in quality, porosity, thickness, etc.

At this stage, despite our very best effort to come up with our own numbers, it is, at the very best, all speculation for now. Having said that, based on the production rate and drilled data to date, it would come as a major shock to me if we're not looking at a minimum of 250BCF at Rayburn :o)

Note: This is all conjecture on my behalf. I am not a qualified geologist and has no inside info, so I cannot possibly make an accurate aseessment of the ultimate recoverable reserve at Rayburn. The info contained in this post is strictly informational only. Basically, DYOR!

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