I am going to stick my neck out and declare my guesstimate for...

I am going to stick my neck out and declare my guesstimate for the FY12/13 guidance which will be out soon.
I looked at the expected numbers for the NBN, both fixed wireless and fibre, Cubic/Opal Card, and put some guesses around Westbase, Gridnet, Novotech, Vodafone M2M and considered the reduction in Telstra sales. I am using the FY11/12 results as a base and then adding/subtracting estimated changes for the FY12/13.

I have it all in a spreadsheet but I can’t be bothered posting it on HC. Some basic assumptions are:
- 58,500 NBN fixed wireless units will be deployed. That is based on 40% take-up rate of 512,000 total units split equally over the next 3.5 financial years. This factors in the rollout finishing in Dec 2015. Unit prices are AUD$600.
- 6,600 Cubic/Opal card units will be deployed. Total units are expected to be 20,000 so I am allowing for an 18 month roll-out starting in December 2012.
- Attributing a combined $6.25M revenue and $1.5M Gross margin to Westbase, Gridnet, Novotech and Vodafone M2M.
- A further reduction in Telstra sales revenue $4.5M.
- Some prices were derived from the Netcomm catalogue (RRP) after applying a discount to get from RRP to wholesale.
- Exclusion of the South East Water deal due to the absence of any news.
- No other major deals affecting the financial results.
- Gross margin for all deals is 25%. Based on the financial results of the past 2 years the Gross margin appears is 30% so I am using 25% as it factors in possible reduced margins to win these contracts.
So with all that considered I am guessing a $15M-$20M EBITDA on revenue of $90M-$110M. I will venture further and maintain my previous FY12/13 EPS $0.06 estimate. I think it might even get to $0.08 but that is just biased enthusiasm talking. So sticking with a FY12/13 EPS $0.06 the stock price could see anything from $0.30 to $0.60 in the next 6-12 months. I can’t see any downside from the current $0.13 stock price.

As a side note, I asked Boardroom Radio to do an interview with NTC of which NTC declined.