RepeatGUIDED FORECASTS--COMPARISON OF CSM and EXLCSM has...

Repeat

GUIDED FORECASTS--COMPARISON OF CSM and EXL

CSM has interests in Manganese, Chrome, Nickel, Gold and Iron ore. EXL has a variety of Coal.

1. CSM : This study thread: http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_thread.asp?fid=1&tid=99802#536369
Website: http://www.consminerals.com.au/

Has 197 mill shares but owes some to REM holders to finalize the takeover. That will increase the number of shares to 217 mill. (10 mill conversion of CSM conv notes, 10 mill shares CSM shares to ex-REM shareholders). The mean weighted shares will be somewhat lower for 2005.

For 2006, some conversion of manag options should bring the total to 218 mill shares.

PROJECTS: CSM will benefit from REM's supply of some 3-4 months nickel this year to June 30. That will be some $9 mill NPAT; this to add to the original set guided forecast of $50 mill (Before REM's takeover), add price negotiations and we get close to NUMIS' 2005 NPAT of $65.7 mill

Here is the guided CSM forecast from NUMIS, post 532555, this thread:
Net profit 2004A £9.7m, 2005e £27m, 2006e £48m

EPS 2004A 5.7p, 2005e 11.9p, 2006e 20.6p
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At the moment, GBP= $A2.43415. So the NUMIS profit for 2005 is $A65.7 mill.-See below. Using their E/S translated into $A, we get 29.0 cents/share for 2005.

For 2006, using NUMIS data, we get a NPAT of 116.8 mill; reduce this to $112 mill so as to reduce risk. E/S=51.4 cents /share based on 218 mill shares.

Current price: $4.10. The prospective P/E's for 2005 and 2006 are 14.1 and 8.0

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2. EXL--$7.98
Website: http://www.excelcoal.com.au/
Shares: 197. 8 mill for 2005 (This includes the latest acquisition) and 199 mill for 2006.

The 2005 year: The MD presentation predicts $60-$70 mill for the 2005 year, say $65 mill. (Same as for CSM, see above). Based on av weighted number of shares, (Say 195 mill) the E/S will be about 33.3 cents. The P/E will be 24.0.

For 2006, not much data is available; if it were double that of 2005, ie $130 mill. then the E/S would be 65.3 cents and the prospective P/E would be 12.2.

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SUMMARY.
For 2005, E/S for CSM: 29.0 cents and 33.3 cents for EXL.

For 2006, E/S for CSM: 51.4 cents and 65.3 cents for EXL

For 2005, the prospective P/E of CSM is 14.6 and for EXL: 24.0.
For 2006, the prospective P/E of CSM is 8.0 and for EXL: 12.2


That is my opinion.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.
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