guinea and anglesey

Granby Oil released it's Final Results recently.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20060704070011M2172

In the results they list the various prospects along with P50 numbers for receoverables and their estimates of risk factors. It's well worth a look for all EXR holders.

In particular, for Guinea they have a P50 number of 92 mill bbls on the block alongside a 34% risk factor. So for EXR's 13.125% stake in the well we have 12.1 mill bbls net to EXR on an unrisked basis and 4.1 mill bbls net to EXR on a risked basis. So at USD 5 per bbl in-the-ground say (probabaly way too low) then this well is worth over USD 20 mill to EXR on its own.

Next is the recent research report by Objective Capital (dated 18 July 06 and not yet on the website). Here it is (email address reqd for registration):

http://www.objectivecapital.co.uk/ocuk/services/t.asp?oid=Art2&aid=74&f=http://reports.objectivecapital.com/ocreports/OC%2DUKHNW%2Dfull%2Dobjective%2Delixir%2Djuly06%2Epdf

On page 2 they highlight that negotiations over the Anglesey prospect (14/14b) are close to a full farm-out too (already partially funded by the Albion Petroleum deal).

Returning to the Granby Finals, one sees that they have a P50 estimate of 119 mill bbls on the block with a 22% risking. Assuming that they farm out the whole prospect on a 2 for 1 basis then that leaves EXR with a 25%, so that this prospect yields 30 mill bbls net to EXR on an unrisked basis and 6.5 mill bbls net to EXR on a risked basis. This is worth over USD 30 mill on a USD 5 per bbl in-the-ground oil price.

So these two wells, one which is firm and the other closer to being firm (IMO, DYOR) are worth north of USD 50 mill.

Consequently all the cash and other prospects (including at least one further well to be partially funded by Albion) are in for quite a bit less than zero.

Looks good value to me.

DYOR

Des