gut feeling

I have a "gut feeling" that Zijin and Genorah may have already negotiated an amicable partnership over Garatau and possibly NKP. Why else would Zijin go to the trouble of lengthy negotiations, photo shots and alerting shareholders of entry onto the NKP register and prospects of a deal pending only government approvals?

I am speculating ( have no insider knowledge) that since Zijin had previously done their NKP due diligence when the 50c takeover bid was rejected a year or so ago and the resource has not diminished in value most aspects of a deal would have been agreed.

Exactly what is “the deal” is the unknown at present. If it’s a straight takeover of NKP then Genorah would have had to lower its expectations ( less than 50c per share) due to the financial and internal mess that they got themselves into over the past year. They have increasing debts and have lost control of their destiny in my opinion. Naturally a takeover would require independent valuations. However these can be “geared towards" any agreement struck. The only stumbling block may be 20% of shareholders resisting if the offer was too low. In my opinion based upon NKP’s resource 35c should be at the lower end of acceptance by minorities. Naturally we want more!

No doubt if Genorah was to sell off their entire NKP holding then they would most likely have secured free carry ( no capital outlay) for their 26% of the Garatau Project and possibly a second mine at Tubatse.

On the other hand if the deal is a genuine joint venture similar to the Xstrata option (which was mooted for years then silently retracted from the last annual report ) where Zijin delivers the total funding and enjoys a large % of platinum output then NKP will survive and enjoy a rosy future on the ASX and JSE. Once the Garatau mine is built and the future of Tubatse is determined ( after paying off the Bengwenyama Tribes) I would expect the 50c level for NKP to be exceeded.

The above are my views and expectations. I am ignoring the current NKP sell price as it does not reflect future prospects but only the lack of shareholder information flow.