HIO 0.00% 2.1¢ hawsons iron ltd

Non believers all stating this is never going to come to...

  1. 2,516 Posts.
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    Non believers all stating this is never going to come to fruition.
    Taken from the 2017 pre feasibility study they stated the following.
    "Hawsons Iron Project – World leading concentrate and pellet feed project
    Independent market analysts CRU have made an assessment of the Hawsons project, concluding that:
    1. Business costs are in the first quartile of the global iron ore supply cost curve
    2. Business costs show Hawsons to be the leading concentrate/pellet feed project globally
    3. Capital intensity is near the lowest of CRU’s basket of concentrate/pellet feed projects globally, and
    4. Hawsons’ product iron grade is the highest of all concentrate products worldwide."

    If these are all true then the global price of iron ore will have to go up as projects are mothballed.

    Issues they have at the moment.
    -Raising capital to keep the company solvent.
    - Interest rates going up, therefore additional costs to service $1B+ debt go up.
    - Fe prices uncertain at the moment, (2017 $63-$75 av est. price between 2020-2030 per tonne), currently sitting at $95 per tonne but with all the global headwinds plus new Chinese state government backed iron ore company raise questions over the price of iron ore in the next 10-15 years.
    "In the longer term, Fitch forecasts prices to decline to $65/tonne by 2025 and $52/tonne by 2030."
    - Massive increase in energy costs both electricity and diesel.
    - Ability to build the mine in the time frame expected.


    From the way I see it, everything has gone against them in the short term and they have finally been squeezed to make a decision. There is no reason to get a bankable feasibility study done at the moment as they are being told it will come back with a 50% buffer attached to it. How do you then go to the bank or backers and say that the current estimate is x but you may have to cough up an extra 50% and it might take an extra few years to build and get to production due to supply chain issues. On top of that, worst case scenario the revenue generated may not be enough to cover the costs due to all the uncertainty in the iron ore price going forward.
    Best to look at options of lower capex initially, utilising current infrastructure in the area. Might not be as profitable in the long run but it will have a higher chance of getting the project off the ground.

    If they can't find a way to make this feasible then there will be a load of other miners that will hit the wall globally, and the larger players or China will happily buy up the resources at a bargain price.


 
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