guyane and takeover scenario, page-2

avoca

Interesting scenario and one that has come to my mind as well. We have been "expecting" a takeover since 2001 but HDR was protected by WPL's 10% stake. Since they sold in December 2005 they have been replaced by ML as a significant shareholder........so I guess a takeover play is more likley now. And ML has helped the price to fall by loaning shares to shorters .. an unusual thing to do if they were really principals (holding 70m shares). As you say if anyone was interested they would wait for Flamant to give a better idea of the value of HDR's equity in the Dana JV blocks, and more details on estimated reserves in Uganda.

Even if you risk the Guyane leads at 10% there is 1.9 billion barrels potential and Uganda could be billions as well with what's under Lake Albert (Kingfisher results in a couple of months would also be eagerly awaited). To an Exxon or other supermajor A$2 bilion for HDR would be peanuts.

I can tell you this ... knowing my luck .. a takeover won't happen until I have been forced to sell out!!!

H