re: guyane and uganda Steve,It would be VERY difficult for HDR...

re: guyane and uganda Steve,

It would be VERY difficult for HDR to put a value on oil in Uganda at present.

Some major variables (besides reserves and production):

PSC terms: These are summarised in the HDR AIM submission document. Worth downloading and reading for background info anyway. In my assessment middle of the road for African PSCs, about half as good as the offshore Mauritania, but varies a lot with production rate (and no doubt the detail & interpretation).

Crude Quality. If a heavy sour crude then will probably need to be exported, and value obviously lower at point of sale.

Refinery vs Export. A light sweet oil would easily be processed locally in a simple mini-refinery, capturing the value of both the otherwise high export cost, and the high import cost of diesel, gasoline etc.

Certainty and refinery sizing. To opt for a refinery of x size they need to be confident of producing x oil, for a number of years. Difficult to get right with typical ramp up og production in a new basin, but rapid decline of most individual wells. Therefore fair to say a fair portion will most likely all be exported, and probably all intially, as I would expect late 2006 production all going well.

I wouldn't like to try to establish a value if I were Simon. He'd be crucified later whatever he said now. Suffice to say only the lucrative paths will be taken, and commercial oil will mean big money for HDR.

Entropylord