Had these on my watch list but due to circumstances, lost touch with this stock.
Hence, I am paying more now.
U price $138 with another auction to come on 12 June.
My forecast on 10 April was: $175-$200 on 31 Dec.:
Subject: will the u price rise much more in 2007 Stock Code: URANIUM - URANIUM U92 Posted: 10/04/07 09:16 Hotcopper Radio: URANIUM on BoardRoom Radio Posted By: stolwyk Views: 243 Post #: 1688878 (Start of thread) Sentiment: Buy Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
I believe so due to the following factors: 1. The well known problems of Cameco and ERA. This slack can't be taken up quickly because Cameco was promising to be a large producer. 2. Global warming calls for more nuclear facilities; substitutes, although wellcome, don't give a reliable baseload of energy. 3. There are no reasonable mines coming on stream apart from those already known and are producing. Those earmarked for production are in the main small producers and few will come in production in 2007. 4. One producing country, Russia, wants to keep U for itself and won't be exporting apart from an arrangement it has with the US re enriched supply from old warheads. There is some argument about pricing and normally this trade would stop in 2012. I can see it being terminated earlier. 5. The demand for U will be underestimated due to the panic caused by the talk about global warming. It is conceivable that trade restrictions may finally be put in place in the case of countries who ignore protocols designed to cut back on pollution. 6. Before any call for finance can be made by private interests building nuclear plants, banks tend to insist that U be bought ahead of building these facilities. 7. Some countries may supply false forecasts of needed nuclear facilities so as not to encourage U price rises. 8. Navies are being modernized and that requires Uranium; China is doing just that. 9. As U prices rise, U may be hoarded; also, ETFs are already in place and this alone will attract more investors as U prices rise. More ETFs are likely to be created. Storage of needed U is being done by larger producers. ETFs will contribute a lot to price rises as U is being locked up. 10. There are no futures or derivatives, so lower prices by shorting using a lot of paper, is not possible. 11. Small quantities of U are being auctioned and it is not too difficult to obtain much higher spot prices at every such auction. Those waiting for lower prices, will need to make a decision sometime, as the waiting list becomes longer. This alone promotes higher pricing although it may become more erratic once the price is much higher. It remains a seller's market in 2007, IMHO.
Summarizing, these and perhaps other reasons are good enough to certify higher U prices in 2007 and $175-$200 is possible this year, IMHO.
