Graph in the OP is misleading. And six months out of date....

Graph in the OP is misleading. And six months out of date. Supply has caught up, and peak spot prices as seen in March 2016 have come and gone. Supply and demand is now at relative parity, thus spot prices are continuing to ease.

And let's be real: trying to forecast spot prices in 10 years time is absolutely foolhardy. As well as current producer expansions, there's at least a dozen 'huge' lithium entities that'll be coming online before 2020. And each will happily undercut the other (for competitive advantage) at first opportunity. How can anyone possibly forecast outcomes from so far out in such a dynamic sector?


IMO, best off waiting for the EV/lithium phenomenon to be proven via real world sales and real world adoption, than investing in forecasts, personal dreams and rainbows. The reality is, right here, right now, only an elite few upper crust city dwellers few can justify the switch to EV.

People always point to China, saying an EV revolution is necessary to clean up their pollution levels. Well... no. An EV revolution merely swaps petroleum pollution for coal pollution, or some other fossil fuel. For an EV revolution to take place, China has to make 3X as much electricity as they do now. They're certainly not going to fulfil this deficit via solar panels or wind turbines alone.

Getting in early on the EV trend, if it does indeed become mainstream (and as the last six months has demonstrated), is not a guarantee you'll end up making money.

Play it when it's hot, drop it when it's not.