Hi All,I know this would be a big call however we are looking at...

Hi All,

I know this would be a big call however we are looking at seeing the AUD fall further to ~0.9350 by early next year. Again I sight some of the following reasons.

Weakness in the EURO zone with possible EURO money printing to occur from the ECB. Flight to USD.

Now the US is playing war games with S.Korea. That sort of action could be provactive to N.Korea. Hopefully not. This tension will have either escalated or reduced by Christmas.

China will continue to struggle to manage their economic growth/inflation etc. They could end up in a bit of a pickle, however it is so big and relatively new and therefore I would be suprised whether anyone really knows what will happen.

The RBA has stated that it is comfortable with the rate setting for the medium term. The market has no reason to price in further advances in the cashrate at this time.

My last point could be contentious to the purists. My father inlaw is heading overseas next year for a 9-10 week trip to the EURO zone. From past performances the AUD should fall significantly prior to his departure date in early March! :-)

I do agree with your view Calvo that we should see some re-tracement upward before a continuation lower in the near term.

Uturn - Are you around? Do you have any views on the current mkt leading into Dec? Thanks for your inputs previously.

Good Luck everyone. Just a disclaimer - I don't trade long term views, however I more capture 40-60 pip moves using chart patterns and news events.