Pioupiou can attest to my efforts in "following the cash" for TGA but I have concluded that DCF is not useful for TGA. I have settled on a simple dividend discount model as an approximation, and paying attention to the ROE and the ROA. For 2015, I would like to see ROE of 18% or above, implying a NPAT required of at least $31m. With TGA, GAAP earnings are complicated by management's conservative accounting, as a lot of earnings are backended.
At the end of the day, a precise value is a chimera. A range will make more sense.
TGA Price at posting:
$2.48 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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