Hey BBB,
Good to hear from you. I'm enjoying some time off in "God's country" (as in "In God we Trust" currency).
I'm afraid I hung on too long holding out for the upper band for my implied "fair value". Should of taken 2.3 (or 23 now) and exited.
Totally agree with gusher & cashflow announcements. These guys are have not only tested my bullshit meter but broken it. Might just turn a blow torch on them when I return (as I see the COGCC production data has still not been updated.).
As a side note and no details will be supplied, I was having conversation with a graduate of the Colorado School of Mines where I simply asked about the good Doctor. Such a surprising response.
Anyway kind of obvious that AKK can do very little a present to improve. It's 8:30am Thurs US EST and while major markets are closed for Thanksgiving the futures markets are not and they show WTI at under $72 with OPEC inaction.
AKK is dependent on Birch production and drilling of which IMO they really have no input into. The low price for oil will have a large negative on the APO of the carried wells and then we have been given no insight into what price they get or if hedged in any way.
Whatever "strategy" they believe they are working too - I don't see it.
Consolidate your shares - OK - then consolidate your operations, your staff and get your costs inline with $65 oil price and show how you will be OPERATING CASH FLOW positive after paying for everything but Capex. When oil price rises again then you can grow again.
There are some real bargains (as in assets) that larger companies (like COP, EOG for example) will get as mid size companies seek cash. Over extended small caps like HK will find it tough sledding very shortly. While their liquidity seems OK as there are no short term debt maturities they only have their revolver to drawdown and that base is going to shrink dramatically with oil price taken down the 1P NPV10 value and likely asset impairments coming.
Full of good news this Thanksgiving morning aren't I.
Hey BBB, Good to hear from you. I'm enjoying some time off in...
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