Botchee - I will own up. I am one to read more than I write, and this is in fact the first time I have posted here. I will explain why I don't post. Essentially I see that when I tell people of what my view is it affects my trading decisions because after providing such information I feel that I should stick to that and therefore to adjust my position if required becomes harder for me to do. I have learnt this flaw in my character the hard way ($$).
Also here there is a lot of technical opinion. I tend to use macro, technical, fundamental and dare I say it - Gut Feel. My main indicator I use is an internal one that listens to the noise circulating in the markets. By using this I did pick 6 months prior that Aug 07 would be the month when it all starts falling to pieces. I know this is just my chat and I actually only have one mate who I tipped off who could validate that claim however that is all just hear say.
Recently I used Technicals, fundamentals, and my mkt noise feel to trade CBA Div with an exit at 53$. Could have made more I guess, but you have to leave some for the next guy/girl. Stocks like CBA are good b/c they pay well, fully franked and there is a large divi re-investment which means that the price will have support even if the markets craps itself.
When I talk about market noise the most recent example has just passed. There were some ok figures come out across the globe which resulted in positive price action. This was more positive than most of the extremely bearish noise that was being thrown around the market (ie It didn't have to be much to be considered good news). I guess it's likened to an internal "momentum" indicator that goes in the opposite direct to the incessant mkt chatter that tends to get louder. Essentially I was bullish through here. This market is now walking a tight rope, however this range trading will end soon and it will decide to go one way or the other with the inclination at the moment that it will be up. It is at these points that I really get a lot out of some of the opinions on this thread b/c we are entering a flux area...I am mostly sitting on the sidelines at the moment because of this uncertainty.
I will stop babbling - however I have been in the markets for over 10 years and have still managed to live to tell a few stories. I have battle scares left from being short NCP puts when worldcom collapsed, and Short TLS puts when it was re-rated from growth to yield...Learning experiences in capital management!
I enjoy reading the opinions on this forum, and there are a number of opinions I like to digest...I will ensure to post occasionally when I think I have something valuable to say about the future before we get the 20:20 of Harry.
(20min delay)