Half year forecast

Thought I would start a new thread to make it a bit easier to follow half year result thoughts. Any comments welcome. My back of the spreadsheet calculations are as follows:

Dose Sales: To do justice to a forecast of dosage sales I think you need to do it by Region as the mix has a significant effect on sales value.

Given the Americas is the engine room of Sirtex, plus the economy doing very well (compared to previous 7 or so years), I have gone for a top of the range 23% increase in dosage sales. For Europe & Other I have assumed a “run of the mill” 20% growth and for APAC a sub par 9% growth. I have pulled APAC back as it is the traditional low growth sector and I am assuming Burwood Chew must have got the flick for a reason (assuming he wasn’t chasing the secretary around the desk or had his fingers in the till). So half year dosage sales would be: Americas 4170, Europe & Others 1344 and APAC 479. Total dosage sales of 5993 – 1043 (21%) up on last year.

Net Sales Value: By using the average sales value per dose, by Region received in the 2nd half of 2015 you get the following sales value per Region. Americas $85.408m, Europe & Other $19.117m and APAC $3.833m. So total sales value for the 1st half 2016 of $108.357m - $27.957m (34.8%) above last year.

NPAT: I will cop out here and just go with a margin of 22%. Same as last year as I don’t have enough info at hand to do a deep dive of 1st half ups and downs. So a margin of 22% gives a profit of $23.839m - $6.184m (35%) up on last year. This equates to 41cents a share for the half.

Exchange Rate Benefit: Page 83 of the 2015 Annual report states a 15% drop in the AUD against the US and Euro will deliver a full year benefit of $20.511m and $4.865m respectively. On my calculations the average exchange rates for AUD v USD is .72342 v .77059. A 6.1 % benefit. For the Euro I have .65555 v .68773. A 4.7 % benefit.

Given the 1st half of the year represents about 45% of the full year then Sirtex should receive the following 1st half exchange rate benefit. USD - $20.511 * .45 * 6.1/15.0 = $3.754m. For the Euro $4.865 * .45 * 4.7/15.0 = $0.686.m. So total exchange benefit of $4.440m.

The result: So on top of the already outstanding NPAT I believe an additional $4,440m will hit the bottom line. This makes a total NPAT of $28,279m (48.68 cents a share). A staggering $10.624m or 60.2% above last year. Given the skewing of SRX to the 2nd half I believe the half result will more than justify a SP of $45.00. Guess time will tell – it always does.

Any other opinions more than welcome.

Cheers

SLC4ME