Half year forecast, page-2

Great work slc4me, your logic is impeccable and the outcome a function of your assumptions. Can't disagree with any of it.

I haven't done a half year forecast, just a full year one of 106c for the year. If the split of that is 48.5c and 57.5c then our results will agree exactly

The problem with all of our forecasts is the lack of visibility of the value and timing of some key inputs, e.g. R&D and Marketing spend. For that reason I tend to look at the headline dose sale numbers as my key metric, with revenue and NPAT being logical consequences of that, on the assumption that any expenses incurred in earning this revenue are well justified and well controlled.

So although I am not forecasting this, my assumption for the half year is for headline dose sales of 5990, which should not surprise anyone given historic growth rates and management's clear flagging of likely future growth.