Half year forecast, page-6

Hi All

I'm usually very conservative when it comes to my forecasts/estimations but I tend to go into some detail to hopefully improve my accuracy.

I believe there are two factors the market is underestimating.

1. The Average USD FX rate for HY15 was actually 0.8899 a lot higher than most people realise, this compares with 0.7288 for the current year.

2. The operation leverage of the business has only been partially harnessed. If you review the p&l expenses in detail you note how little expenses increase year on year with the exception of marketing. At what point does the marketing expense begin to plateau?

Thus my calculation is as follows:
US (+22%) = 4136 Doses = $96,471m sales.
EMEA (+22%) = 1366 Doses = $15,372m Sales
APAX (+10%) = 484 Doses = $2,970m in sales

Total Sales = $114,813m

Given that significance of the FX gains one would expect an increase in GM, I have factored in a slight increase from just over 84% for the FY15 H2 period to 85% for H1 FY16.

Gross Profit is therefore = $97,591m

The tricky part is trying to forecast OPEX
H1 FY15 OPEX = $46,376m
H2 FY15 OPEX = $53,257m

I've forecast my OPEX being circa $60m for the first half, I believe this is conservative given its $7m higher than H2 in FY15 and there would have been significant one off costs associated with the ASCO presentation in that half.

PBT = $37,573m
NPAT = $26,301m
EPS $0.47

Curious to hear peoples thoughts on the inputs I have used, I think I have been fairly conservative and expect actual EPS to be >$0.50.

Please DYOR.