I’m eager to see what we might learn (or be able to infer) from...

I’m eager to see what we might learn (or be able to infer) from CBA results on Wed 9th August.
Looking across various sources of data, I think positives for HLI will be:
- generally people will wait until the end of their 2yr fixed rate mortgage to refi and therefore there will be no partial refund to them of their initial LMI payment;
- with property prices holding up well, people who identify they will have serviceability issues with higher rates continuing for longer will have the option to sell without them or the bank losing money, therefore no LMI claim.
- refi option of extending loan term to 40 years will be used by those where needed as it benefits both the lender and the property owner.
Even though unemployment is likely to trend up over time, it seems that HLI will still have to manage capital above the 1.4-1.6 x range. I don’t think claims are going to ‘naturally’ reduce PCA much in the next 6-12 months. Add to that the fact they are pretty good at matching rate to risk, then I don’t see them taking unnecessary risks with new policies.
The government scheme/s to help select people avoid LMI does have an impact and this program could be expanded over time. However, even if you take that scheme to the nth degree where LMI was abolished (which I don’t see happening), then they can just put HLI in run off and we get some consistently healthy capital releases over the next 12-15 years.
I’m sure there will be some reversion to more normal historical claims levels over time but I’m struggling to find data that would indicate claims are going to spike through the roof - can anyone envisage this scenario?