I think we’re in good health. It will be interesting to see how...

I think we’re in good health. It will be interesting to see how much management provision for next 12 months. Management have tended to be conservative and provision more than turns out to be required (an approach I am comfortable with).
In my view, home owners will be looking at the plight of people at the mercy of the rental market and the behavioural result generally speaking will be that they will go to their banks and do everything possible to keep their homes. This will further tighten supply of housing stock on the market and support house prices. Their banks will also want them to succeed. As will their parents/ family. As will the government. So much like in COVID everyone will be working towards helping people keep their homes. People are also working extra hours where they need the cash. The RBA produced a research paper on the ‘double trigger’ of negative equity and unemployment being required for defaults to occur. I know this will happen for some people but I don’t think it will be nearly as many as HLI provision for.
Under AASB17, I understand we will have to wait longer to realise our profits but having bought a lot of HLI at prices closer to $2 than $3, I’m comfortable holding and seeing the actual data over the next 12 months.