Tapdancer, Even thou it is largely academic now, these are my thoughts on why ESS was worth $1+
Since listing ESSA has recorded very high, consistent returns, with very little debt (if any).
FY05 21.74%ROE
FY06 19.56%ROE
FY07 28.76%ROE
FY08 23.5%ROE
FY09 13.81%ROE
FY10 8.25%ROE (made a loss in the first half)
For the Calendar year 10, it was at 21%ROE.
As far the drop off in the financial crisis, I always felt that any massive drop in revenue (freeze on capital expenditure by mining companies) will lead to poor short term results, however as soon as clarity returned to the forward orders (Not neccessarily boom conditions or even normal) they would be easily able to restructure their cost base and start turning profit again.
I think the economics of ESS are outstanding and IMO would allow them to continue to earn 20% returns in the average year. When testing Iron ore, the volume and value of product which goes through the measuring equipment made by Essa is so high and so important to get right that the customers are not likely to go for the second best equipment because it is cheaper. This fact protects their margins as ESSA is regarded as the best and dominates the market.
The best thing about the economics of ESSA though, is that if you buy an ESSA machine, you HAVE TO buy spare parts from ESSA, which obviously allows for very good margins. In fact even if you sell one machine per year, the spare parts business will be larger the following year. The compounding effect of this makes ESSA unique IMO.
In general, supplying a machine to a customer and then providing spare parts for the life of the machine, gives the company the best chance of selling another machine down the track.
To add to the spare parts benefit, Iron Ore is abrasive and wears things out. My favorite part of the AGM was when someone asked why doesn't ESSA diversify in to coal testing equipment and Daryll responded with "Because coal doesn't wear things out"
So for those reasons, I felt that ESSA would continue to earn returns around the 20% mark. I'm not a big fan of discounted cash flow value models but i'll leave it you to consider what those kind of continued returns will have on the business but consider at 73c this Danish company will pick up a 10% return in their first year. In a few years at the growth rate I have outlined above, FLDsmith will have killed the pig. To add to this, the synergies that they will gain from their other related business should make the acquisition even rosier for them.
I did make a lot of money out of this, so it is not all bad, but I really, really liked this company and would of liked to continue owning it, or recieved what I thought it was really worth.
would be happy to hear your thoughts on it's value
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