AEV 0.00% 0.9¢ avenira limited

hypothetical economics

  1. 3,159 Posts.
    This is getting silly - but market does what market does...

    Here is how I see it at these prices when taking a conservative and mitigating approach to valuation.

    Some food for thought/debate anyway...

    Cash vs. MAK Hypothetical

    MAK 2008 non-producer
    Fully/D M'Cap = $128,000,000

    Cash in Bank 2008-2011
    (9%pa * $128,000,000) * 3 = $34,560,000
    27% ROI

    MAK 2008 to 2011 production
    1.5MT pa production
    $200 p/ton Phosphate

    $300,000,000 revenues
    $200,000,000 costs (OPEX + CAPEX Debt payments )

    $100,000,000 Margin
    $80,000,000 Profit ( minus Royalties )

    --------------------------------------------
    $56,000,000 Free Cash Flow ( minus TAX )

    $28,000,000 Distribution (50% Cash Flow)

    21%pa Dividend (Of $128,000,000)

    $800,000,000 Fully/D M'Cap (PE 8, SP $7.20)
    -------------------------------------------

    2008-2011 ROI
    $7.20 / $1.15 = 6.26 (626%)

    626% / 3yrs = 208% YoY
    -------------------------------------------

    Summary 2008-2011

    Cash Return On Capital
    (9%pa * $128,000,000) * 3 = $34,560,000
    9% YoY Return
    27% Total ROI

    MAK Share price and Dividend
    SP $7.20
    PE 8
    EPS 50c
    Div 25c (3.5%)

    MAK Return On Capital
    208% YoY Return (3yrs)
    626% Total ROI
    21% YoY Dividend (Starting 2011)
 
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