10 months ago, Hamas managed to surprise Israel. It was a holy day, the last day of Sukkot, and people were on vacations and with their families as 3,000 armed men breached the Israeli border in numerous points under a heavy barrage of rockets all over Israel. They entered army bases and sleeping communities, even stormed a music festival in an open field, to carry out the largest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. What a horrible day it was.
To their agony, their genocidal celebration lasted only one day. Israel was quick to recover despite the horrific chaos, and kicked them out. 3 weeks later, 5 divisions crossed the border in the opposite direction, under orders to destroy Hamas completely.
How great was the chaos? Only yesterday could Israel announce that the last missing person from October 7 was found. Bilha Yinon (76, see pic) was at home with her husband. The terrorists killed them both and burned the house, but the fire was so great that her body could not even be found. Relics that were gathered from the burnt house lately were the proof that she was there and was not kidnapped in Gaza.
Yahya Sinwar was officially elected by Hamas as the new head of the political bureau, stepping into the shoes of the late Ismail Haniyeh as Hamas' leader. It's not that Hamas has any "moderate" figures (it's a genocidal terror organization after all, that controls 2 million people in Gaza with an iron fist) but Sinwar is the most radical choice one could think of. He will be a dictator who will not allow any competition. If Israel had any thoughts of letting Hamas be part of the "day after", now it doesn't.
Let's hope the IDF will be able to arrange a meeting between those two, just like in the picture, and the sooner the better.
The tunnels are Hamas' best friend but they are horrible to stay in for long period because of the heat, the moisture and the darkness. The IDF identified that the tunnels get power from solar panels on roofs, so they started destroying them. Soon after, the terrorists come out exhausted, drenched and tired to breathe some fresh air. That's how Mohammed Deif and Khan Yunis' brigade commander were killed.
Put yourself in Hamas' place. Your C level is almost wiped out and the rest are hiding in tunnels. Your top commanders have lost the ability to control their units and fight in large formations. You suffer in the tunnels. You get bombed even in the safe zone, where you hide among civilians. What would you do?
An article in the British newspaper Al-Shark al-Awsat (The Middle East) summarizes the situation: Hamas is collapsing. I guess most of you aren't aware of the increasing number of Hamas leaders, both military commanders and senior political figures, that Israel reached lately and eliminated. Not only Mohammad Deif, their chief of staff, but brigade and battalion commanders, minister of economy, people in charge of recruitment and manufacturing.
Hamas did not anticipate that the war would last 10 months. At first they had the luxury of travelling underground, through a vast network of tunnels. Some were equipped for a long stay and had oxygen, water and food stocks, along with command centers that allowed them to communicate. But as time went by, just like taking out bricks from a Lego model, Israel exposed and destroyed more and more tunnels, creating gaps in the network and forcing Hamas hiders to surface for air and for planning their next moves. And then we get them.
Everyone's waiting for the Lebanese and Iranian responses for the assassinations in Fuad Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh. So much fuss over 2 people? Apparently yes.
Shukr was one of Hezbollah's founders, had vast experience and was among Nasrallah's closest friends.
Haniyeh was killed inside a highly secured compound of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran. Whether it was a short range missile or explosives in his room, Iran is seen as weak and the Middle East is not a place to be seen that way. Iran's shame means it must avenge, and although Israel never claimed responsibility, Iran's mind is set.
However, nobody wants to wake up the bear (the bear is Israel). Huge pressure is put on Iran to minimize its attack or at least avoid civilian casualties in Israel. In Lebanon, foreigners are called to evacuate, flights are almost completely cancelled, and foreign ministers (maybe even the French president) are coming to stop Hezbollah. In Iran, missile launchers are seen moving around and the stock market is plummeting.
Nasrallah said in his speech yesterday that keeping the entire state of Israel waiting and biting its nails in anticipation is part of the attack itself. This is the purest meaning of terror - a state of intense of overwhelming fear, and Nasrallah is partially right about it. Israel is a country that does not seek war. Going to work, building new stuff and winning Olympic medals are higher on our wish list. However, I'm not sure the people of Lebanon would agree with him.
Nasrallah threatened: "in one hour we can destroy all the factories in Northern Israel that cost tens of billions to build". Well, he might be right, but just imagine how Lebanon would look one hour later. Be careful what you wish for, Hassan.
As Nasrallah spoke yesterday, Al-Shark al-Awsat reported, there was panic in Beirut as Israeli warplanes broke the sound barrier three times. Also yesterday, Hezbollah announced its 400 casualty since it decided to join the war, unprovoked. You see, there is no real dispute between Israel and Lebanon, same as there is no dispute with Yemen, Iraq or Iran - they are not resisting anything, just waging war and then complaining when Israel hits back, and hits back hard.
Should Israel wait for the attack before taking any action? Of course not. Israel should continue doing exactly what it has been doing and exploit every opportunity to push its enemies towards surrendering. But in addition, Israel should set the rules of the game very clearly: every missile or drone fired at me will be instantly answered by a missile at your direction. One for one, who could possibly complain it's not "proportionate"?
That should have been the policy towards Gaza in the past years, but Israel chose quiet over firm standing, and got October 7.
