The attackon Rafah is now fully underway. The media is not reporting what is reallyhappening, and Biden is lying. He said on Thursday that the attack had notreally begun yet. That was a lie to help him explain his idiotic decision towithhold arms. I have no inside information, but if you pay attention toNetanyahu, they are now going to obliterate Hamas and its leaders. Israel nowwill go ahead on its own and ignore the US demands about Rafah and the war. Israelis not Ukraine and can do this on its own. It is interesting to notethat the EU and NATO are not helping even though what happens in the Mideastwill greatly impact them. It is my belief that Israel will need several weeksto complete the Rafah operation, and then it will continue to mop up. This isgoing to go on for a while. The protestors and Biden will scream and the mediawill provide more false and sensational reports of dead Palestinians, but noneof that will stop what is now underway. The campus protest will move tothe streets in NY, SF, Chicago, and other places. Biden will make more idioticstatements and decisions. It will be very messy and chaotic. But in theend, Israel will prevail. Once they finish with Gaza they will move on toLebanon and end the attacks on northern Israel which they cannot allowto continue. This will become a much wider regional war as it is my opinion,based on just looking at the threats to Israel by Iran, that Israel has decidedit needs to end all these threats once and for all, and now is it. If they donot, then it will just continue for years. October 7 in myopinion was the turning point in the history of the Mideast, and it is nowunfolding. If this does unfold as I expect, then gold is a nice thing to own.Oil prices will rise.
Bidenwithholding weapons is quickly becoming a major negative for his reelection. Asone of his major donors just told him publicly, there are a lot moreJews than there are anti-Semitic Muslims in Michigan, and the Jews have a lotmore money to contribute to a campaign and a lot more influence. So,not only was this a historically idiotic decision internationally, but it isfor the election as well. The administration continues to pander to the radicalleft and Muslims and is losing the rest of America. Biden and his staff seemsunable to act in the best interest of the nation and the world, and make alltheir decisions based on election politics. That is a recipe for disaster andwill have long term international bad repercussions. Biden is a seriousdanger to the nation and the world. He makes Jimmy Carter look OK.
As a resultof all of this, if I am close to right, which may not be what happens, oil goesway up in price over the next several weeks despite the markets believing waris already priced in, and not much will change. It is my view that the marketsand the media are ignoring reality, and it will become a shock as this ramps upover the next couple of months. What is now seemingly just a battle over onecity, is about to risk becoming a regional war. The futures markets for oil arein backwardation now which would normally mean oil will go down in price. Ithink the market is wrong. As oil rises, inflation rises, andthe Fed gets caught in a slowing economy and rising inflation. Stagflationgoing into the election. Markets would then turn down over the next couple ofmonths. It is my observation, since I communicate constantly with numeroussenior professional investors, that they are myopic and are looking at justmarket action today and are missing the bigger picture of geopolitics and theirmajor impact. You may have noticed that gold is again rising substantially.
