The accounting changes were related to lease impairments, not their arrears position. I don't have a copy of Shaw's broker report, but the jump in the arrears position is material, at least from the market's perspective. Otherwise, the share price wouldn't have fallen by that much given they've met profit guidance.
Afterpay is in consumer space, agreed. However, what stops the small businesses from purchasing small equipment items from places like Myer or Bing Lee or other electrical equipment vendors listed with Afterpay under their own personal purchase? its an indirect competition to what.
Completely agree that 1H2019 is important to see if they have improved in terms of managing their impairments and arrears position.
In regards to assets - Fits outs and refurbishments pretty much have no residual value (e.g., check out Grays Online). With Yellow Goods and heavy commercial trucks & assets, I assume AXL provides finance on a 'dry hire' rental or non-operating lease basis. Therefore, the 'wear & tear' of the vehicles in the event of repossession is relatively unknown. E.g., if the business is losing money prior to default/insolvency, proper maintenance of assets is unlikely, and any recoverable value might be considerably less than the market value at the time of disposal. But maybe AXL does not assume any residual value/balloon with its leases fully amortised across the rental term and are mitigated to this asset risk. I am not sure in regards to their position in regards this in relation to their credit policy on the setting of residual values at end of the contract. I hope they don't and keep it as zero on a conservative basis.
Personal guarantees - Again, it comes back to AXL's credit policy & procedures. Does AXL ascertain/verify whether the directors are asset-backed? E.g., when I rent a property, regardless of whether I have term deposits, shares, investment properties, I am always asked for a rental bond equivalent of 1-3 months rent, to cover any potential shortfalls. Does AXL do this? Cash is King.
Common advice from accountants/lawyers are always to separate business assets from personal assets, hence with small businesses, you will often find most personal assets are tied up to the partner that is not involved in the business "on paper". Therefore, recourse against personal guarantees from business operators are generally limited.
70% recovery against the as per Shaw's Report means a loss/write-off of 30% against the amortised lease receivable that is impaired? That means $30 dollars lost/write-off against an outstanding debt owing of $100 dollars? That seems high to me.
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