My estimate of intrinsic value may not be right. When I do these...

My estimate of intrinsic value may not be right. When I do these calculations, there are always a lot of assumptions built in.

One thing I've learned over the years though, is that markets are not at all the efficient machine they're supposed to be. While many T/A analysts believe "the market is always right", I actually believe the reverse: "the market is always WRONG". Sometimes it's wrong on the downside, sometimes it's wrong on the upside.

My personal approach to investing is try to buy when a stock is undervalued, sell when it's overvalued. So I need an estimate of intrinsic value.

For me, intrinsic value doesn't really change much over time, unless there is an event that changes the landscape for a specific company. For LYC, the intrinsic value would change for example if other, large supplies came on-stream, or technology changed the applications for the REE group.

What I'm seeing at present though is a further restriction of Chinese supply, and if anything, more and more applications of REE, therefore increasing demand. Both of these would suggest higher REE prices in the future, rather than lower. And because REE are not "key" inputs in the majority of applications, I don't see the recessionary pressures as necessarily reducing REE prices.

People will still want their plasma TVs, and rechargeable batteries.

Just my view, others may disagree.