heads or tails?martis has been on ignore for me for some time so...

heads or tails?

martis has been on ignore for me for some time so I can only go back to his posts prior to this which I bet are mostly consistent in more recent times (BTW - the ignore was nothing personal, just a little sick of the clutter he was causing on CVI)

anyway, I looked at the dow after fridays close and immediatley thought about martis (and yes I was fully clothed and sober) and his predictions

on the one hand one could say 'you are the man' 'you guru' etc and on the other, as many suggest, a 50/50 punt comes up at least half the time

prior to being on ignore, martis talked about a broadening formation (did I get the term right?). to be honest, I have no bl00dy idea what the heck this is, but he was pretty wrapped up in it and maybe, just maybe he was right but, from my perspective, I simply dont think so

there cartainly may heve been a broadening formation but seriously, was that a predictor of this? my answer is no as I think this is more about sub prime, write offs and hence recession fears (economic factors triggering the change)

and while we are on these write downs, as necessary and as predictable as they are in nature, the value is whats got everyone spooked (and the stop losses and margin calls are doing the rest)

now lets think about these values. if you or I were ceo (and a new one at that after the lasy guy stood against the wall and smoked his last cigarette), would you go for a conservative, accurate write down and then take the risk that next quarter there is another surprise for the market, or, would you go for a big arse one off king hit, get all the pain out of the way and then build/re-build and in a year or two of steady (some say, prediucatble) re-building, low and behold, the guru, king of the dung heap, saviour to the company, investors and customers

if it was me, thats what I would do.

so what am I saying here.

martis great - maybe, but from my perspective, nah, sorry

write offs - more pain to come, maybe a long recovery period starting at the bottom in Q2 or 3 this year

stay well all,

gus :)