5hareholder,
One of your more balanced posts. you said..
==
As for PEs, well I think you need a reality check, because the market won't pay a PE of 10 on a 10yr operation. Try 5. And they won't pay a PE period if the earnings and being handed out as dividends, because all a PE circulates around is an anticipation of earnings that the company can then use, but they won't be able to use them if they hand them out to shareholders.
==
I agree PE are a crap shoot, but it could be looked at this way... If 77 cents is realistic, and will be paid for 4-5 years, and in the meantime Wilgar et al show some promise by the end of 2012 when mining is supposed to start (plenty of time), would you put a $1 in the bank for 7%, or a dollar in CDU for 20% p.a. At this rate its $3.83 (notice its OW's price) at end of year 5. If you prefer 4 years its $3.07.
So you can buy a CDU share now with almost a guarantee of not losing anything (assuming no ef ups) and with the upside to be revealed in due course. Now that is all based on your numbers. It will depend on your preference if you are a shoot from the hip trader, or just stick things in your super fund.
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- hang on lol...$2 dividends aren't sustainable
hang on lol...$2 dividends aren't sustainable, page-36
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