hang on lol...$2 dividends aren't sustainable, page-38

$2 dividends aren't even credible, let alone sustainable. Some posters seem to think that all the work is done, the numbers are out there and everything is set to go. What I see is quite a bit of misinformation (i.e. wrt grades - I have pointed this out many times and some ought to know better), lots of overly optimistic assumptions, and plenty of gaps in knowledge.

1) They don't have 30 MT @ 1.7% Cu. They have 30 MT @ approx 1.2% Cu equivalent by my earlier calculations. That's using realistic current price ratios, rather than CDU's assumed prices which produce ratios very different to today's reality.

Copper is $4/pound, cobalt is $16/pound, gold is $1760/ounce. At this point you can do the maths based on the actual quantities of metal mined, and real current prices and forget about calculating the equivalent and issues of "consistency".

WRT to the larger low grade inferred resource. The cut-off has also been based on the same unrealistic price assumptions so the tonnage is also questionable. You can see from the resource statement that they have included 103.7 mt of material at a Cu grade of just 0.06%. That only makes the cut using a highly inflated Cu:Co price ratio. Unfortunately cobalt prices have been weak, in AUD terms they are about half what they were at the bottom of the GFC, and this resource is quite dependent on them.

2) Recoveries haven't been fully stated. They say they can recover at least 75% of the copper in the native copper zone (being 95% of the native copper) but what about the rest (being the sulphide/oxide content of that zone)? Its a possibly that this is proving to be refractory given that they are still working on it, or maybe expensive to recover. And what proportion of the overall deposit do the various forms of mineralization form? Metallurgy is still a work in progress, opex costs also can't be known until this is complete.

3) Capex isn't known, nor the details of financing. Many posters seem to be quoting broker numbers which emerged several years ago. This assumes they are immune to the massive inflation that has afflicted the entire mining sector and that broker numbers can be reliable without a detailed engineering study. Not based on experience to date. The actions of the company wrt buyback and engaging corporate advisers suggest that further equity raising is likely, however this is purely speculation on my part.

4) The details of the off-take contract are unknown, but some posters have suggested that OCW will be getting a discount to spot price. This seems likely from the language of the off-take announcement, but it is unknown what this discount might be.

Conclusion?

This needs a DFS.