happy and a prosperous new year to blr

Hi All

Happy new year to all and especially to fellow diehard Blackrangers - Buc, swissboy, towie, tydec, Tonyfarr, Galileo( if you are still with us), grant64 ( reading from somewhere in the milky way) etc ----may we have a much better and a prosperous new year amid the turmoil around the globe.

Selamat Datang to HangSeng. Your presence does make BLR's thread more interesting and much more alive. It will be nice to have some good discussions . I believe both our companies will do better this year.

This will be a relatively long post as i have been itching to type something but hasn't got the time.

I will post some facts and also my thoughts/speculation. Hopefully this will help the newcomers as well. I have been with BLR for the last 6 years and is a strong supporter as some may know. I am happy to share what i know .However my information may be flawed and i will appreciate any correction from anyone out there.


First of all, some facts that are known will be on the annual general meeting 2011 report
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111122/pdf/422pxdkkz4z479.pdf

Now the next fact is generally unknown but due to the ability of Google, one can find this online and is not confidential. HangSeng and rapsch, i hope this will answer your question as to why hansen uranium deposit did not start its mining 30 years ago.

Also note that the price tag for Hansen Deposit was about $225 million during the 80's. A reserve has been established, not just resource ( measured, indicated, inferred) at that time. If we were to take the peak price of uranium = $43 and our current spot price of average $52 (being conservative and not using the ~ $60 long term contract price), can we assume that the hansen deposit should still be worth at least $200 million. This is only the 30 million pound. Now BLR has 90 mil LB in ground uranium and likely to reach 100 mil lb.

So what does that say about our current market cap of less than $20 million?


************* this is taken from grant64 blog*******
http://australianuraniuminvesting.blogspot.com/2010/05/black-range-minerals-historical-look-at.html

Here's a History lesson on the Hansen Uranium Project from 1978 - 1983

Cyprus, Westinghouse planned mine

The Hansen property has a long history with Cyprus Mines Corp, where it was known as Cyprus Hansen.

In 1978, Cyprus sold a 49 percent interest in the property to Wyoming Mineral Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of Westinghouse Electric Corp.

Westinghouse, which at the time was a major supplier of nuclear reactors, was hungry for uranium. Westinghouse was then faced with 14 lawsuits filed by 20 utilities after it cancelled uranium fuel supply contracts in September 1975.

The suits sought delivery of 69 million to 85 million pounds of uranium at contract prices over the following two decades.

Westinghouse was suing, too. It had antitrust suits going against 29 foreign and domestic uranium producers and their agents, alleging price fixing and allocation of uranium markets.

Back in 1978, Cyprus estimated reserves at the site were about 30 million pounds.

Hansen was named for James G. Hansen, Cyprus' former senior vice president for mineral exploration.

Open-pit mine planned

Cyprus was to be operator for all exploration, development and production at Hansen. Funding for licensing, development and construction of the open-pit mine and 3,000 tpd mill was to be provided by the two firms on a pro rata basis.

When Westinghouse bought in in 1978, the firms were looking at production by 1983.

But by 1980, the price of uranium had began to flag. In the early '70s, uranium sold for around $6 per pound, a price that rose as high as $43 by mid-1979. A year later, however, it had dropped to $30, a five-year low, on its way down.

The reason was oversupply. In 1979, producers turned out 37 million pounds of uranium oxide, while utilities consumed only24.8 million pounds.

Rich Canadian competition

At the same time, rich new deposits were being discovered in Canada and Australia with up to 30 times the grade as domestic ore, which averaged only 2.2 pounds per ton in 1979, down from 4.2 pounds in 1969.

By that time, Amoco (Standard Oil Co. of Indiana) had acquired Cyprus and the new company soon decided to abandon the Hansen project, which had a price tag of $225 million.

The decision also came soon after the Three Mile Island reactor incident, which further eroded uranium's image and demand.

Amoco and Westinghouse planned to wait until the market for uranium became more stable -- a situation that wasn't to occur.

****************** END quote**************


BLR has been through many hurdles( enviromental) due to some fine print somewhere along the legal documents that was there to trap many that was unaware. Thanks to Mike Haynes and Ben Vallerine( project manager in USA an recently appt's new executive director), these hurdles were overcome but that stole 2 years out of the "near term" production . LOL. who could have guessed that at that time. Sounded just like what is happening to AGS, but with a different spin.

IMO- On the bright side, that 2 years of "stalling" saved the company from having to raise more capital ( which means less dilution for shareholders like me). Kevdog, if you are reading these, i hope that you can share more with us straight from Colorado. I hope you will join us soon as a shareholder! There is a saying that goes "If you cant beat them , join them! " - no negative intentions at all here ok? Just wishing that you can make more out of the company.



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Now on to my second part of opinion and speculations!

What i dont like about BLR!! = low share price after fukushima + global crisis mucking things around



Why i like BLR!!! ( in no particular order)

1. KUDOS to our previous MD , MH and ben Vallerine. They have done a great job in a very harsh environment! If all goes well, i will be looking forward in meeting and thanking them personally at the AGM 2012 and the new MD, Mr Tony Simpson. Next 3 months will be very interesting.
The cash burn rate has been relatively low over the last few years. No capital raising since the 24c for $16.8 million from sophisticated investor in May 2007. All the BLRO options were converted in Feb 2011.

4.5c each and Mike haynes had 8 mill, chairman 6 mil, ben vallerine 1+ mil all contributing back to BLR then. Those options had an initial price of 0.5c = 5c per share total once exercised.
ISN'T THIS A GREAT VOTE OF CONFIDENCE FROM MANAGEMENT? AT THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE, THEY HAVE LOSS MORE THAN 50%. I AM SURE THEY WILL WANT TO REAP THE REWARDS AND THE SHARE PRICE ABOVE 5C AFTER ALL THE HARD WORK.


2. Great to have Tony Simpson as our new MD. It is good to see that our new MD has started his accumulation of 1 million shares. I doubt that this will be the last. On hind sight( after all the sighing LOL) the incentive options is a good deal!

If i read this correctly regarding the options
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20111216/pdf/423bh3410z0f01.pdf

it means that Tony Simpson may inject $0.03 x 14 million = $420,000 by 31 dec 2012 AND IF the market cap is more than $80 million, to exercise his options. He would have made a lot of money by then too but that is what it means by INCENTIVE isn't it? Go Tony!

3. The management team is slowly growing from 3 to now 6. ( instead of having too many to start with) They must have been careful with how they use the cash. Considering that BLR is aiming to be a producer, they are needing more personnel i presume.

4. BLR is the 3rd largest uranium deposit in USA that is amenable to mining! 90 mill lb and counting. USA is also one of the largest consumer in the world for uranium. PFS is due in 3-4 months. the DFS could come out earlier than expected after that considering the large amount of data from previous studies? who know?

5. BLR thread at hotcopper has been really quiet until recently and uranium sentiment is extremely poor = bottom?

6. the technical analysis is improving - bullish divergence?. next few weeks will tell.
Towie, i have been buying a few parcels too to average down.

7. Cash at least $4mil plus - hmmm would like to have a much higher share price before the next capital raising = less dilution. How much do we need for DFS?

8. someone else can extend these.....8...8...8

ALL the best!