Hi Magadan,
I've been running a few different scenarios & initially the NYSE first made most sense (from my own sense of self preservation)... I want Gus to XYZ because it help ME.
How if you take a step back & look at the holistic picture being presented here, it would be naive to think that only a debt streaming OR a CR will be forth coming & move PEN forward on a long term trajectory.
Individually neither get PEN totally on the front foot, individually they help.
Think about the NYSE listing. No second chance at a first impression here.
The reason being is that PEN is becoming complex & interwoven in its movements. You can't think as a logical step by step, tick the box then think right whats next. Its juggling match or like flying a kite in the breeze
One step at a time will not get us there in the shortest possible time frame. Need to ratchet on a foundation or prior announcements.
When the timing on the announcements changed - I was thinking NYSE, Contract , term sheet, CR..worked best for me.
AS announcements started -delays on NYSE (1), then (2), the amendments to filing listing 1 & 2 & the fact that if you look under the new IPO's site on NYSE, Pen or PENA is still not listed, despite being glaringly obvious the pending Energy sector (1) item for some time now. Then contract for ore presented, now more funding talk (but still no NYSE), the game plan I wanted has changed..No amount of thinking I am right will change that sequence of events...So why would Gus lay out a path as he has.
In my mind its a given re the debt funding, how much is dependent on the terms and as at Monday hadn't been squared away.
Ink will be drying on those contracts over the week end. But that leaves a dilema. S2 fully funded but not operational till say 2017, no cash flow from it immediately.
Where to get the operational cash from to progress say Kendrick, cover legal issues as per recent NRC notices, Karoo, JORC , BFS ect
If you are Gus & wanting to list this doesn't get the USA investor all juiced up to want entry into PEN with an imminent (that pun again) capital raise specter looming in the not too distant future.
Two options -
Option One - CR now. Risk some dilution (I'm on here some 12-18months ago & I know talking to others off line said I can live with dilution when the company is changing gears & moving forward.)- . This will waive the starting flag to USA based investors who are now looking at a cashed up ,S2 production facility, that conceivably can operate under its own profitability curve until U price improves. Don't forget how tightly held the register is now. If the ADR run up in USA then buying will happen on ASX & shares moved to Mellon Bank for more ADR to be issued (never to return), & ASX will have price discovery until the arbitrage is negated.
Option Two - (this was a front runner until oppies weren't converted - have to ask your self why???grey matter was smoking ov er this).....Anyway NYSE listing will happen into a luke warm market........NYSE investor --- "Yes I like the story but how much capital do you want? When is it going to happen? So your asking me to participate in an IPO knowing I will have my hand in my pocket again to ensure I'm not diluted with 3 to 6 months?". Some will stand on the side line.
If you are a USA based investor, (forget you own PEN for the moment), but are looking to now enter. What would you want. (Karoo for nothing - well you got that), fully funded, cash flow positive company waiting for sentiment to turn.
(If you go back far enough I did an post on the ramp up on USA based, U companies, transiting to production & rising U price, The up side was impressive. )
One would think price discover is still yet to happen.
I really think option One is the better. It also segways into a host of other matters re NYSE listing requirements, but to answer that I would need a white board, a lectern & copious amounts of coffee to put forward my point.
Either way we will know Tuesday and I see that PEN has been purged in readiness.
Don't feel like proof reading it so hope that makes sense.
(20min delay)