Easter was always going to be the critical time, and should you go long the day before Easter or the day after was my main concern.
At the moment it looks like the day before for US markets at least.
My opinion is that US markets have bottomed but that other markets could make a new low, so we have some indexes creating new lows while others do a wave 2 or higher low.
Let me summarise last year and this year and ahead according to the 3 global/US cycles and our unique cycle.
The Decennial cycle suggested a Jul/Aug 2007 high, a Dec '07/Feb '08 low and up into Oct/Nov '09.
The Presidential cycle suggested a Jul/Aug '07 high, a Nov low, a year end rally, a Feb '08 low, a Mar/Apr '08 high, a May low and up into Sep/Nov '08 and a choppy '09.
Armstrong suggested a late Feb '07 high and a Mar '08 low and up into Apr '09 and then a 2 yr decline.
So how do you relate all this?
For a start it suggested all would be fine till late Feb 2007 and it was.
From that point Armstrong was pointing down and Jul/Aug was the time when all three got in synch and the odds were the market should decline hard.
We got the hard drop into mid August and yet we saw a great rally up into Oct, which those cycles don't explain.
A 30 month cycle I have that always suggested a Oct/Nov drop, worked its magic and added to the downside impetus for that Nov low.
So where would the 2008 low be?
As you can see from the above, the possibilities were from Dec 2007 to May 2008 and still are.
Historical studies of combinations of cycles and other esoteric timing such as equinoxes etc. and shorter term cycles gave best times as Mar 13 or 21 ish and even shorter gave 19.
So what know?
On those major cycles, expecting serious US downside from here is against the odds.
In fact we may do a reverse Shanghai Drop after Easter.
There is evidence IMO that Oct/Nov is still a time to worry about and China and resources are my main concern because they have indications of bottoms at that time, while I believe financials have probably done their worst.
The US has shown some nice 5 year moves from past inflexion points which brings me to a unique Aus cycle.
Since the 1982 major low here there has been a distinct and exact 62 or 124 month cycle.
If you just take the lows then
July '82 + 124 is Nov 1982 which was a major low and the end of the 1987 correction IMO.
Nov 1982 and 124 is Mar 2003 which was the bear market low.
The next would be July 2013.
The highs are a little bit more problematical.
July '82 + 62 months was Sep '87 and the precrash high.
124 months later was just the midpoint of a couple of choppy years.
124 months again is May 2008.
Is May 2008 a serious high here or the midst of a choppy period or are the highs actually lows that are out a bit as Sep '87 was out 2 months from a low.
I don't know but every indication then is that May will have every wondering if a new leg is starting down or if it is just a wave 2 or higher low forming.
Personally, I still feel 2 things.
1. The US may rally better than other markets initially but that no new major bull market will happen till mid next decade. More like just ranging within the current parameters.
We in Aus may see a double top and even slight new highs but we will probably see a worse decline than we have now into 2013 as commodities have a final run after the current pullback but then become the dot.coms of the market.
I reserve the right to alter my views tomorrow or the next day, lol.
I may have it completely wrong but haven't for the last 20 years.
I don't say that as boasting because I have mostly not followed my own analysis.
It is OK to have a long term opinion but anyone fighting the market is a fool, just ask me.
(20min delay)