INFINITY LITHIUM CORPORATION LIMITED (ASX:INF) - Hard Rock Lithium Review - INF, page-2 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by MinerTrader: ↑

Ok so I have had an idea for a while to open source a bunch of research and collaboratively work with others to find stocks. I trade in and out of a bunch of the below stocks depending on their valuation compared to peers. I think everyone is coming to the realisation that there is going to be a major shortage of critical metals (lithium being one of them) and most of the lithium stocks will do very well. At any given time though some will be better value then others and its about selecting those stocks to ride the leverage. I do not want to turn this into an argument about how other stocks are rubbish, the purpose for posting here is to get the resident experts in INF to help keep the spreadsheet up to date with latest studies and JORC estimates so it can be compared to its peers, I think most lithium stocks are going to continue to do well. I intend to post a similar thread on some of the other lithium stocks I hold so if you wish to talk about those stocks please do so on those threads.

My notes on INF:
i) Based NPV : MC it has the most upside of any of the stocks I have researched thus far.
ii) The amount of Mineable Lithium : Market Cap is also top 3.
iii) The lithium seems to be hosted in Mica as opposed to spodumene, are there currently any mica mines in production at the moment producing battery lithium from Mica? I'm guessing this is the reason it is so undervalued however on first read of the study it looks like the appropriate work has been done and I picked up a parcel of the stock this morning.

Initially I stuck to spodumene hard rock deposits but I have since added 2x European Mica Deposits (INF being one of them). I'm yet to add the clay deposits or brines. But potentially those more familiar with the stocks could add them.

The philosophy is to imagine these mines in production as they are currently all in DFS/PFS/SS stage. In that scenario if they are doing a earn in whats the full earn in. They have all used similar pricing for their products however the devil is in the detail and not all NPV's are the same. What I have done is look at how much LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) each company has in JORC Resource (Row 10), How much LCE is recoverable in the current mine plan (Row 14) and then the NPV of the project (Row 21). I've then compared each of these metrics to the market capitalisation to see which stocks are cheep and expensive compared to one another. (rows 26:30). Every stock is a buy at the right price.

Below is a link for anyone to have a play with and include their own DD. I've kept the values in the columns C:L and then the source of each of those values in cells U:AE (this is important for transparency, Reference publicly available information where you can and keep).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hnfM3dwXPStNb6x7aC8D4NA8G2JhS23amSL63orw9Y8/edit?usp=sharing

Obviously someone is going to go in there and destroy my sheet so I encourage you to make a copy and work locally and then message me to update the main one. It would be awesome if we could all have a play and work collaboratively.

This is just for fun and not financial advice. DYOR, Numbers should be assumed to be incorrect and I'm happy if you spot errors as it means we can get a collaborative database going faster.

* Identified Areas for improvement:
1) Add cash/debt position of each company so enterprise value can be used
2) Add in cost per unit of product and annual production of product to place them on a cost curve
3) Separate out vertically integrated vs stand alone NPV's For deposits include non lithium minerals (i.e; tin, tungsten, tantalum and include them on a LCE Equivalent basis) (if someone wants to collect the conversion is easy and can be done live using googlefinance formulas)
4) Manually calculate NPV's at the same commodity prices (right now use the lithium pricing to compare how optimistic the company is too its peers and adjust NPV as appropriate)

Expand

Excellent contribution and welcome. I guess my take on the low MC is the perceived uncertainty in mine approval from local opposition. Slide 18 in the latest INF prezzo shows the required land zoning is granted locally. I wouldn't be holding INF if I didn't think it will eventually go ahead but this uncertainty IMO is reflected in the MC.

In any other scenario you'd have to expect MC >AUD200M at this stage, especially with EIT support.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	306325	5.1¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

306325

5.1¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.3¢	38650	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

5.3¢

38650

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	306325	0.051
8	1130958	0.050
1	90000	0.049
1	10000	0.048
2	126111	0.045

No.

Vol.

Price($)

306325

0.051

1130958

0.050

90000

0.049

10000

0.048

126111

0.045

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.053	38650	2
0.055	11255	1
0.058	77500	2
0.059	31411	1
0.060	20000	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.053

38650

0.055

11255

0.058

77500

0.059

31411

0.060

20000

(20min delay)
Last 5.1¢		Change -0.001(1.92%)		Mkt cap ! $23.59M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.2¢	5.3¢	5.1¢	$4.088K	78.18K

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