King Louie - I like your fortitude.HDR's valuation is well in...

King Louie - I like your fortitude.

HDR's valuation is well in excess of 90c based on its curent probable reserves. At around 64 million barrels (21% interest of 300m comprised of 180m Chinguetti, around 110 m Banda and 12 million of Jengemia) @4US$/barrel yield a valuation of 95c, add 4 cents for woodadda you get $1. I have pasted the raw data below which should be in Excel format if you care to do the sums yourself.

Notwithstanding Thon (which HDR was free-carried in any case), in Marituania Blocks 2,3,4,5,6, the total possible reserve comes to around 5 billion barrels, with some 43 leads (see Woodsides Target Statement of 2000). To date, 4 exploratory wells have been drilled with a success rate of 50%. Keep this rate up and Hardman could easily prove up to 100 million barrels on its own, which would add $1.5 to its share price. With 40 million dollars in the bank, HDR could have a crack at another 3-4 exploratory wells, if not more.

At the current share price of 50c, you are looking at 500% returns in around 5 years with minimal downside. To the rational, risk neutral investor, I will take these odds any day (and have bought in at 53c).

To HDR baggers and those who take joy in seeing it fall - this is a long term game and I find your sadistic sendiments distastefull. It's a sad reflection on your morals as surly you have yourself have suffered the same pain before.

To longtermers- Hang in there, with every exploratory well that HDR sinks, HDR has the potential to add signicantly to its proven reserves thereby minimising futures risks. Time will tell.


Reserves HDR's int NPV/b SOI (m) $/S

Mauritania 300 64.5 6.25 424 0.950766509

Jengaria 12 2.88 6.25 424 0.04245283

Woodada 0.04

Other Mariania 100 6.25 424 1.474056604

NPV 2.507275943