Yep - trying to predict what revenue might look like...
HT8 has announced $70k per day avg Amazon sales for Nov. which if extrapolated would be $6.3m for Q2. Throw in the one-off sales weekends, Amazon could well deliver $7m+ for Q2.
From previous announcements, I've pieced together roughly 50% of sales are non-Amazon, which amounts to $4m from the previous quarter (Q1). Naturally, expecting some growth here too, let's say not as strong as Amazon, so $4.5 - $5m for Q2.
Then add a little PH revenue (further lockdowns across Aus). We could be looking at a $13m revenue quarter.
Question then is, what will EBIT look like? Last quarter it was approx. 8.5% ($820k on $9.8m). This quarter expecting slightly less due to a number of sales events, so perhaps in the 7.5 - 8% bracket. Although could be higher if PH sales jumped (a previous comment suggested fire-sales across the PH product line, but I was keeping an eye on this myself and while some products were on sale at 30% ish, most weren't on sale and generally no different to normal operating conditions). We know PH sales in the past were at 20% margin...
If we achieve $13m at 7.5% margin, = EBIT of $1m.
Would put us on track for a $50m Rev and $4m EBIT FY21 not accounting for any additional growth through the year.
How would the market price us?
HT8 Price at posting:
18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
