Thanks for your analysis, below is my post from last month. I also had Q2 revenue at 13M and a slightly higher margin, and FY EBIT of 4M, with a market cap 2-4x what it is today. ________ The Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales results are really good. What's also worth noting is the mention of the $67k average daily sales on Amazon AU prior to the event. This is a 20% increase on the $56K average daily sales in September (mentioned in the 21/10/20 Update). So this appears to be a positive trend for HT8.
Playing this forward a bit through Q221. Assuming a ~20% increase in non-big event daily sales through Q221 v Q121, plus the record sales days from Black Friday/Cyber Monday, with Xmas still to come, Q2 revenue could be at least 13M (Q1 run-rate: 9.8M + 20% average non big-event daily sales increase on Q1: 2M + BF/CM/Xmas big days uplift: 1M]. This would represent 30% growth on Q121 and an amzing 650% growth on Q220 ($2.1M revenue). Assuming a similar net profit before tax margin to Q121 (8.5%), Q221 net profit before tax on 13M revenue would be 1.1M, and H1 net profit would be ~2M.
Playing this trend across FY21, and assuming H2 revenue flat v. H1 (unlikely?), FY21 net profit would be ~4M.
Kogan is currently trading on 50x FY20 NPBT ($2B market cap/40M FY20 NPBT).
Assuming 4M NPBT for FY21 as per above, at a similar multiple, HT8 would be worth $200M (v market cap of $50M today).
I do worry about the company's ability to execute as it scale given its very low headcount and relatively low cash position. So, even reducing HT8's NPBT multiple to x25, to reflect that it is yet to truly scale, the business on conservative assumptions is worth $100M, or double what it is today.
HT8 Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
